Tom Marsico, Portfolio Manager

July through September 2008

During the third calendar quarter of 2008, the Focus Fund and the Growth Fund had total returns of -11.06% and -13.58%, respectively. Those results significantly trailed the S&P 500 Index, the Funds' primary benchmark index, which produced a total quarterly return of -8.37%.

The table below updates the Funds' longer term investment results for several time periods through September 30, 2008, as compared to the S&P 500 Index:

 Average Annual Returns 
 One YearFive YearsTen YearsSince Inception
(12/31/1997)
Total Annual
Operating Expenses1
Focus Fund-22.64%5.05%4.60%6.35%1.23%
Growth Fund-25.14%4.16%4.61%5.68%1.24%
S&P 500 Index-21.98%5.17%3.06%3.41% 


The performance data for the Funds quoted here represent past performance, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance information quoted above. To obtain performance information current to the most recent month end, please call 888-860-8686 or click here for the Focus Fund2 or click here for the Growth Fund.2

This commentary highlights the Funds' performance over a single calendar quarter. Shareholders should keep in mind that the Funds are intended for long-term investors who hold their shares for substantially longer periods of time. You should also keep in mind that our views on all securities and investments discussed in this commentary are subject to change at any time. References to specific securities, sectors, and industries discussed in this commentary are not recommendations to buy or sell the securities or investments, and the Funds may not necessarily hold these securities or investments today.3

As a reminder, the Focus Fund and the Growth Fund often invest in the securities of similar growth companies. Their respective performance may differ at times, however, for several reasons. Among other factors, the Focus Fund is a non-diversified mutual fund that may invest in a more concentrated portfolio and may hold the securities of fewer issuers than the Growth Fund. As a result, the Focus Fund may hold some different securities, and may be subject to greater short-term individual performance volatility than the Growth Fund or other mutual funds that invest in a larger number of securities.

During the third calendar quarter of 2008, the Focus Fund outperformed the Growth Fund primarily as a result of having better overall results in its Capital Goods positions, and having somewhat less exposure to areas such as Energy, Materials, and Telecommunication Services – all of which struggled during the period. The Focus Fund also held more cash, on average, than the Growth Fund during the quarter which helped its performance at the margin. In addition, the Growth Fund owned a position in Lehman Brothers Holdings Preferred 7.25%, which fell significantly in value prior to being sold during the third quarter.

The Funds shared a variety of common elements that had a significant positive influence on their investment results. Certain holdings and an overweighted posture (as compared to the Funds' primary benchmark index) in the Banks industry benefitted performance, including positions in Wells Fargo & Co. and U.S. Bancorp. Several Consumer Discretionary holdings, including McDonald's Corporation, also aided results. Cash and cash equivalent positions, which were at somewhat elevated levels in both Funds throughout the third quarter, provided a modest "cushion" for the market sell-off (more so, as noted above, for the Focus Fund than the Growth Fund), and avoiding certain weak-performing areas of the equity market – particularly the Utilities sector and the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry – contributed positively to performance.

The major blemishes to the Funds' quarterly returns were attributable to the following factors:

In addition, the Focus and Growth Funds struggled with respect to their energy-related holdings, although the effect on the Growth Fund's performance was more acute as it had a higher allocation on average to this sector as compared to the Focus Fund. In particular, positions in Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., Transocean Inc., and Schlumberger Ltd. impacted both Funds negatively, as all three companies had sharply-lower stock prices. The Growth Fund also owned positions in XTO Energy Inc. (-29% prior to being sold) and Petrohawk Energy Corp. (-27% prior to being sold) which weighed further on its performance.

Investment Outlook

So, where are we now, and – more importantly – where might we be headed? As we write this letter, the S&P 500 Index – on the heels of a major slide this month (through October 15th) has declined 37% year-to-date and is on a pace for its worst calendar year return in more than 70 years. The stock market's plunge has been a function of a number of factors, many of which we have touched upon above. But, the whirlwind of events – highlighted in the Marsico Funds Capital Markets Overview – has been historic and cannot be overlooked. A great deal has happened in just the past several weeks:

The pace of events does not appear likely to abate. Policy-makers around the world are now fully engaged and major, ground-breaking announcements are flowing on a daily basis. Most recently, government guarantees of various types of debt instruments have occurred as part of major efforts to restore stability and liquidity to the credit markets. A tremendous amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus has been put into the system – although, candidly, little of that has seemed to matter so far. A remarkable number of innovative fiscal and monetary policy responses to the financial crisis have been enacted – many of which have lagged effects. The Troubled Asset Relief Program ("TARP") is evolving rapidly in its planned structure and approach, and has yet to be implemented. We would expect capital raises, merger and acquisition activity, and asset disposals to continue occurring at a very brisk pace, particularly if private equity capital returns to the market significantly.

Some Thoughts Regarding Financial Services Companies, the Housing Crisis, and Their Importance to a Stock Market Recovery

For the equity market to recover from the severe pummeling it has taken over the last year, we think the recuperation must start with the healing of financial stocks and the normalization of credit markets. On at least one level, the healing process is underway as massive deleveraging in the financial system has already taken place. At this point, financial institutions have raised $500 billion in new capital. If you were to include the US government's backstops of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and AIG, that number grows to approximately $750 billion on an economic basis. And, with the passage of TARP, $700 billion in new government assistance is now available to directly recapitalize banks, purchase troubled assets currently residing on financial institutions' balance sheets, and serve other potential valuable deployment options.

The bleeding needs to stop in housing, where price declines have been at the root of much of the losses experienced by banks and other lending institutions – and which simultaneously puts pressure on consumers' balance sheets and net worth. We think many investors assume that the capital raises that have occurred recently are aimed at past mortgage-related losses, but we believe they really are directed at prospective losses and may potentially be overly cautious in nature. As one example, Wachovia Corporation's charge-offs on their Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage ("ARM") business total roughly $1 billion to date. However, in Wells Fargo's proposal to acquire Wachovia, it assumed cumulative charge-offs will be $32 billion, or about 26% of the total mortgage business at Wachovia. That is, to say the least, a draconian assumption. To put it into some perspective, a 26% charge-off rate would imply that one out of two mortgage holders will default and the recovery value on the mortgage will be just 50%.

Home underwriting problems are in the process of being repaired. One of the factors we (and the market) have been most worried about was the magnitude of the impact of seriously-flawed mortgage underwriting standards, and how those could be transmitted into the real economy. In particular, we have been concerned about interest rate re-sets on banks' pay-option mortgage books of business, and whether those re-sets could trigger another spike in home foreclosures, which would further depress the housing markets. Now, however, Countrywide Financial, IndyMac Bancorp, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia – all of which were major "players" in the pay-option markets – no longer exist. Other banks that purchased their loan books on average have written them down by 25% each to this point. That allows the new owners of those mortgages significant flexibility to refinance those loans and perhaps keep more of those customers in their houses – a potential stabilizing force for housing markets.

The "fix" won't happen immediately. Home foreclosures are still swamping the system (as one example, about one-half of home sales in the Las Vegas area are foreclosure transactions), but we now think foreclosures will peak sooner than others have been forecasting. There definitely appear to be some signs of improvement, although those haven't made the headlines. The fledgling program HOPE NOW, an alliance between counselors, servicers, investors, and other mortgage market participants, announced that through August it had assisted nearly 2.3 million homeowners in avoiding foreclosure. Home sales activity is showing nascent signs of perking up; we recently saw examples in California where multiple bidders appeared after banks reduced listing prices by 10%. We also believe that a nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will make significant efforts to keep people in their homes. Now that they are in conservatorship and under government control, we expect their profit maximization mandate will be a lower priority, which could lead to less aggressive actions to foreclose upon delinquent home loans. Earlier this month, there was some initial evidence of that sea change, when Fannie and Freddie both cut their fees by 0.25%. As mortgage interest rates stabilize and come down, that should help re-establish home affordability. That, in turn should, over time, be a catalyst for helping put a floor on declining home prices, increasing sales and refinancing activity, and bolstering consumer confidence.

Although we are starting to see some signs of improvement in housing, we are not yet prepared to "call a bottom" in the industry. Our caution is driven mainly by flagging consumer confidence, weak labor markets, and our expectation that unemployment could increase -- which would put pressure on the prime mortgage market. But we do think that much of the pain has already been felt, and the strongest, best-capitalized banks with large deposit bases now have a major growth opportunity in attracting new customers and meeting their financial needs. We think that several banks whose stocks we own on your behalf in the Funds will be able to absorb any future losses through big increases in their reserves and by making highly-accretive transactions such as JP Morgan's purchase of Washington Mutual's deposit base at a very compelling price. The global interest rate cuts recently announced by central banks should also help banks recapitalize more rapidly because they will have a higher net interest margin due to a lower cost of borrowing.

Credit Markets and Policy Responses

As financial institutions de-lever, rebuild their capital bases, and move opportunistically to acquire valuable assets at attractive prices, another important development needs to happen: improvement in credit markets. Credit – and the trust that credit is inherently based on – is the oxygen in our financial system. Without credit and capital creation, capital markets and economic growth become seriously impaired.

The restoration process needs to start with inter-bank lending and the normalization of credit markets. The economy cannot grow without smoothly-functioning, rational credit markets. Banks, wary of counterparty risk and uncertain of their own liquidity needs, have been hoarding capital. To explain further:

The Treasury and the Troubled Asset Relief Program ("TARP")

Although there have been numerous, and potentially very significant, policy responses with regard to addressing impaired financial institution balance sheets, the TARP is the first direct, sweeping, permanent strategy to focus on infusing capital directly into banks and – in conjunction with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – creating a mechanism for taking impaired mortgage assets off bank balance sheets and finding a clearing price for those assets. There is no playbook, no precedent for the Treasury to follow as it moves forward. (The same is true for the Federal Reserve.) Will TARP be effective at fulfilling its mission and providing some badly-needed relief in terms of alleviating some of the pressure on bank balance sheets and improving liquidity and investor confidence? That is hard to say right now, although we are impressed by the speed at which TARP is moving and by Neel Kashkari, the US Treasury official overseeing the financial rescue plan. The stock market, based on its steep sell-off after enactment of the TARP legislation, appears to have already voted – at least on a knee-jerk basis. Some have questioned TARP's size, and whether it will be large enough to have an impact. But we would note that the entire US mortgage debt is about $10 trillion, so TARP's size of $700 billion implies an outright loss ratio of 7%. Presently, approximately 6% of outstanding mortgages are in default. And, to be fair, the apparent rush to judgment on TARP to us seems premature – we think the TARP leadership team is moving as expeditiously as possible and, again, has not actually implemented anything yet. Some of the most important factors to monitor will be:

The TARP legislation gives the Treasury an unusual amount of leeway in terms of specific implementation (which was one of the reasons why the legislation was so controversial). Increasingly, it appears Treasury will veer away solely from buying troubled mortgage assets – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now being directed to do this – and move to directly recapitalize certain banks and providing guarantees, in a manner potentially similar to what some European countries are presently undertaking.

And – we cannot emphasize this enough – the US government must take a leadership role as it addresses the problem of financial institutions' capital adequacy. This includes modernized accounting standards (whereby banks have to recognize losses) and transparency of information (including better disclosure of holdings and trading positions). One big reason for the lack of confidence in financial stocks is that the companies are very difficult to analyze, especially given the proliferation of derivative instruments which can make it difficult to ascertain a company's balance sheet, exposures, and risk profile. As an example: according to The Wall Street Journal, when potential acquirers of Lehman Brothers were looking at Lehman's books, among other things they found almost two million (two million) individual interest-rate swap agreements. The bottom line is that the Treasury needs to go after the right problems, and take the opportunity to implement positive changes in the financial services industry.

Some Closing Thoughts

In writing this letter in mid-October, with major US market indexes down more than 40% from their peak levels reached a year ago – and having nose-dived 25% in barely two weeks – we have tried to provide some perspective about the problems in the real economy (housing, in particular) and in the credit markets. Some decline in the stock market was, in hindsight, inevitable and justifiable. But the recent collapse in stock prices, from our perspective, is irrational and driven by panic. We don't know when this cycle will pass (nobody knows), but we are confident that it will pass. We don't know what event will serve as the catalyst for a market recovery (no one does) but it is our strong belief that there will be such an event, perhaps more than one.

In the meantime, stock prices of good, even excellent, companies have been marked-down – in many cases – to what we believe are fire-sale valuations, levels that have not been seen in decades. We are seeing stocks trading at or even below book value, at single-digit earnings multiples, at prices – in other words – that we think dramatically underestimate a company's true worth and earnings power. As of quarter-end, the Funds' primary economic sector allocations emphasized Financials (which were increased during the quarter), Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology – the latter inclusive of MasterCard and Visa.

In an environment where the ceiling seems to be falling every single day, it may seem hard to believe, but we think there is a strong likelihood that stock prices will be higher – perhaps significantly higher – going forward. The adage "it is always darkest before the dawn" may ring a bit hollow as you look over your third quarter account statements and given current market conditions, but the truth of the matter is that it is far more compelling to be buying stocks here at their current valuations, at a time when people are exiting the equity market en masse, than it is when stock prices are already up a lot and still rising (e.g., 1998-2000) and everyone wants to own equities and people are writing books called "Dow 36,000" and giving up their day jobs to day-trade stocks, and….well, you get the idea.

Howard Marks, a portfolio manager at Oaktree Capital Management whom we respect a great deal, recently outlined his version of the stages of a bear market:

We think that we are deeply into the third stage, with the stock market essentially reflecting extreme levels of pessimism. But we believe that it will get better. It always has. In great chaos lies great opportunity.

Signs of hope and things we are looking for:

We apologize for the length of this commentary, but these are extraordinary times, there is a tremendous amount of activity unfolding, and we feel it is important to share our thinking with you in as much detail as possible. We are talking with our universe of companies on a daily basis. We are communicating constantly with our contacts in Washington, DC and around the world. As part of our ongoing effort to understand the global economy, we sent four different teams to China during the third quarter, and also visited Hong Kong, Macau, and Japan. The tectonic plates have shifted on Wall Street and we are doing as much as we can to understand what promises to be a very different US and global financial system and regulatory environment in the future.

We know these have been trying times for you, too, and we appreciate your patience and support immensely. Please be assured that we are working as hard as possible to manage all of the Marsico Funds on your behalf, position them to the best of our abilities to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves, and generate solid long-term performance results.

Thank you very much.

Sincerely,

Thomas F. Marsico
Portfolio Manager